As the AI and tariff headlines swirl, don’t forget that stock market fundamentals remain healthy. Steady economic growth, double-digit increases in S&P 500 profits, contained inflation, and likely additional rate cuts by the Fed later this year are a good mix for higher stock prices. The S&P 500 rose in January, which history suggests is an effective barometer for stock prices over the balance of the year. Expect a profitable year for stock investors in 2025 but be ready for some more ups and downs.

After last week’s whirlwind of national events and the election of Donald Trump as the 47th president, it's easy to feel as though much is out of our hands. However, there’s an empowering truth: The financial choices you make today—no matter the political landscape—are the ones that will most directly shape your future.

While it’s tempting to make investment decisions based on political outcomes or short-term market reactions, especially when the stakes feel high, the key to long-term financial success is maintaining a steady course.

After a strong first quarter for stocks, some April showers rained down as the S&P 500 fell about 4% last month. Hopefully those showers will bring some flowers in May, despite the widely cited stock market adage, “Sell in May and go away.” There is some merit to this old adage because the S&P 500’s best six-month returns have, on average, come from November through April, and its worst between May and October (recall bear markets often end in October). Still, historically the index has gained an average of 1.8% from May through October — hardly worth avoiding.

The first quarter is in the books, and it was an excellent one for stocks. The S&P 500 index rode a resilient U.S. economy, easing inflation, rising corporate profits, and anticipation of summertime rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) to solid gains in March, the fifth straight winning month, and the best first quarter since 2019.

History suggests staying the course. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen 93% of the time in the 12 months following a five-month streak, with an average gain of over 12%. And down years are rare after strong first quarters. So, while stocks are due for a pullback, as the choppy start to April suggests, it’s extremely difficult to sidestep a 5–10% decline. It’s tough to make a case for a big drop — one that might make sense to try to avoid — because of healthy market fundamentals.

Strong starts to years tend to signal more gains ahead, so this calm market may not precede a storm. In fact, when the S&P 500 has been up in January and February, it has gained an average of 11% over the rest of the year and has been higher in 26 out of 28 cases.